Wednesday, July 28, 2010

There is no correlation between "Mandates" and Budget Deficits

So often I will read deficit hawks rail against "Mandatory Spending" programs.  This completely perplexes me.  When looking at government spending, what is the point of looking only at Mandatory or just Discretionary.   The only difference between the two is if congress has to re-approve the spending every year.  That's it.  So why do groups and politicians talk about them as if they are so different?

Here's and example of what I mean.  The Free Republic and the Heritage Foundation reported this year that "Mandatory Spending has increased 5 times faster than Discretionary Spending".  To this, I say so what?  If your problem is with increased spending, why does it matter if the increase is Mandatory or Discretionary.  It might matter if there was a correlation between the percentage of the budget that's mandatory and an increased budget deficit, but there isn't.

For those who might claim otherwise, they might show a graph that shows how spending increases along with total spending.
mandatory_and_total_spending
(Click chart for larger image.  Click here for the numbers)
The only thing that can be said is the obvious: total spending goes up as mandatory spending goes up.  Of course, that's like saying customers to my store go up when more brown-haired customers show up... duh!  Here's a more interesting observation about mandatory spending.  Mandatory and discretionary spending almost always go up and down together.
mandatory_vs_discretionary_spending_dollars
(Click chart for larger image.  Click here for the numbers)
While they often rise and fall together, they just don't raise and fall at the same rate.  Again, so what?  In terms of balancing budget, it's all just spending.   Now here's the point.  No matter what percentage of the total spending is Mandatory, it has no correlation to how much of a budget deficit\surplus there is.  Here's the chart that shows what percent of spending every year had to be borrowed, and what what percent of the spending was mandatory spending.
mandatory_spending_%_and_borrowed_spending_%
(Click chart for larger image.  Click here for the numbers)
Now I ask you, do you see ANY correlation between those two series of data?  Despite this you will still hear politicians say stupid things like Roy Blunt when he says, “I led the fight in 2005 and 2006 to cut the so-called mandatory spending" or the RNC proclaiming that their plan "slows the average annual growth in mandatory spending".  If you're proud of spending cuts, why call out Mandatory spending?
Republicans aren't the only ones that make this artificial distinction.  President Obama's spending freeze is only on discretionary spending.  It seems like a fairly artificial line to draw on any kind of spending cutfreeze.
At the risk of beating a dead horse I want to make sure everyone gets this.  There is no correlation between how much federal spending is Mandated and the sizeexistence of Budget Deficits.
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